A Synthetic Demographic Model of the UK Population: Methods, Progress and Problems

The simulation model has four distinct elements: a baseline demographic model; a dynamic forecasting model; a simulator for social and economic activities; and a set of scenario-based policy modules. This paper describes progress to date in implementing the baseline demographic model. In Section 2 of the paper we will discuss and evaluate the techniques which we have used to generate population baselines. We then review the e-Science requirements of our project, and comment on progress to date in establishing an appropriate infrastructure. The final section of the paper places this work within the context of the broader objectives of the project, including future directions and plans.